The Official West African Monetary Intergration Journal
Volume 10, No. 1, Pages 1-170 (January - June 2010)
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the West African Monetary Zone
The study seeks to investigate the determinants of both the actual and equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and to obtain a model-based ERER and characterise the nature of Real Exchange Rate (RER) misalignment in the WAMZ. Annual aggregate data from 1970 to 2006 were used to estimate a model of RER, which was developed by considering the interactions among exchange rate, monetary and fiscal variables. Based on time-series characteristics of the data, an error-correction model is formulated to estimate the determinants of RER. The Hodrick-Prescott filter method was used to arrive at the ERER and hence the RER misalignment. The results for the four countries' models confirmed the significance of variables like the terms of trade, openness, government expenditure, investment as a share of GDP, GDP growth rate, capital flows, domestic credits, nominal and RER (lagged) in line with Edwards' (1989) model, but not in one single country model. The speed of adjustment of the RER to equilibrium ranges from one year in the Gambia to four years in Nigeria. What stands clear is that all the countries RER were found to be misaligned, and the incidence was very high in the fixed exchange rate regime than the managed float regime. By way of policy implication, WAMZ member States should encourage trade liberalization measures, private sector investment; more government expenditures directed to the tradable sector and promote total factor productivity lead growth policies. Also, policy makers can use exchange rate management to check misalignment. _____________________________________________________________________ JEL Classification : F31, C22 Key Words: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, Johansen technique, West African Monetary Zone.
Aliyu, S.U.R. (2007), Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria. MPRA Paper No. 10376, Munich, University of Munich. Alper, C.E. and I. Saglam, (2002), The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey. Istanbul, Center for economics and Econometrics, Bogazici University. Amin, A. and W.J. Awung, (1997), Determinants of real exchange rate in Cameroon, Congo and Gabon, African Journal of Economic Policy, 4.1: 29-59. Baffes, J, A., I. Elbadawi, and A. O'Connell, (1999), Single equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate, in L. Hinkle and P. Montiel (eds). Exchange rate misalignment, concepts and measurements for developing countries, Oxford. Oxford University Press. Bank of Ghana quarterly Economic Bulletin; various issues. Bank of Sierra Leone half yearly Bulletin; various issues. Central Bank of Nigeria economic Report; various issues. Central Bank of the Gambia quarterly Bulletin; various issues. Chowdhury, M.B. (1999), The determinants of real exchange rate: theory and evidence from Papua New Guinea. Working papers 99-2, Canberra, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management, Australian National University. Clarke, P.B., L.T. Barolini, and S. Symansky, (1994), Exchange rates and economic fundamentals: a framework for analysis. IMF Occasional Paper. No. 115. Washington D.C., International Monetary Fund. Clarke, P.B. and R. McDonald, (1998), Exchange rates and economic fundamentals: a methodological comparison of BEERs and FEERs. IMF Working Paper, no. 67. Washington D.C., International Monetary Fund. Clarke, P.B. and R. McDonald, (2000), Filtering the BEER: a permanent and transitory decomposition. IMF Working Paper, no. 144. Washington D.C., International Monetary Fund. Cottani, J., D. Cavallo, and M.S Khan. (1990), Real exchange rate behaviour and economic performance in LDCs, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39:61-76. Edwards, S. (1988), Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behaviour, Journal of Development Economics, 29: 311-341. Edwards, S. (1989), Real exchange rates, devaluation and adjustment, Cambridge, Massachusetts, The MIT Press. Elbadawi, I. (1994), Estimating long-run equilibrium real exchange rates, in J. Williamson (Eds.). Estimating equilibrium exchange rates, Washington D.C., Institute for International Economics. Elbadawi, I.A. and R. Soto, (1997), Real exchange rates and macroeconomic adjustment in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries, AERC Plenary Session. Journal of African Economies, Supplement to 6.3:74-120. Faruqee, H. and P. Isard, (1998), Exchange rate assessment: Some recent extension and application of the macroeconomic balance approach. IMF Occasional Paper no. 167, Washington D.C., International Monetary Fund. Ghura, D. and T.J. Grennes, (1993), The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Development Economics, 43.1:155-174. Hodrick, R.J. and E.C. Prescott, (1997), ?Postwar U.S business cycles: An empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29: 1-16. Hyder, Z. and A. Mahboob, (2006), Equilibrium real effective exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan. SBP-Research Bulletin 2.1, Islamabad, State Bank of Pakistan Masson, P. R. and C. A. Pattillo, (2001), Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS), IMF Occasional Papers 204, International Monetary Fund. Mkenda, B.K (2001), Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rates in Zambia. Working Papers in Economics no. 40. Gothenburg, Gothenburg University. Montiel, P.J (1997), Exchange rate policy and macroeconomic management in ASEAN countries, in J. Hinklin et al. (Eds.). Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries, Washington, D.C., International Monetary Fund. Morrissey, O. T. Lloyd, and M. Opoku-Afari, (2005), Real Exchange Rate response to Capital Inflows: A dynamic analysis for Ghana. Credit Research Paper No. 04/12Centre for Research in Economic development and international Trade, University of Nottingham. Mtonga, E. (2006), The real exchange rate of the rand and competitiveness of South Africa's trade, MPRA Paper No. 1192, Munich, University of Munich. Pfeffman, G. (1985), Overvalued exchange rates and development, Finance and Development, March: 17-19 Rodriguez, C.A. (1989), Macroeconomic policies for structural adjustment, World Bank Working Paper Series no. 247. Washington D.C., World Bank. Simwaka, K. (2004), Dynamics of real effective exchange rate for Malawi and South Africa. Swedish Business School Economics Papers No.0407009, Orebro, Orebro University, Williamson, J. (1985), The exchange rate system: Policy Analysis in International Economics. Washington D.C., Institute for International Economics.
Buoyancy and Elasticity of Tax: Evidence from Ghana
Daniel Kwabena Twerefou, Abel Fumey, Eric Osei Assibey and Emmanuel Ekow Asmah
In public finance, two important measures that have been used to assess the efficiency of any tax system in terms of its mobilization capacity are tax buoyancy - total response of tax revenue to changes in national income and discretionary changes in tax policy over time; and tax elasticity - automatic response of tax revenue to GDP changes less the discretionary tax changes. In this study, we used the Dummy Variable Technique to control for effects of the Discretionary Tax Measures on Historical Time Series Data for the period 1970-2007 to estimate the elasticity of the Ghanaian tax system. Our findings revealed that the overall tax system in Ghana was buoyant and elastic in the long run and buoyancy exceeded the elasticity, but in the short run the reverse was the case. We also observed an improvement in both buoyancy and elasticity over the reform period (1985-2007) as evidenced in pre-reform buoyancy and elasticity coefficient which were generally less than unity but became greater than one after the reform. Decomposition of the buoyancy coefficients into tax-to-base and base-to-income elasticities showed that the former was greater than the latter by their indices indicating that there is potential revenue in the economy which is untaxed. Overall tax elasticity was estimates to be about 1.03, suggesting that the responsiveness of the tax system to a unit change in GDP was more that unity thereby rejecting the hypothesis that the overall tax system is income inelastic in the long run. General and specific recommendations aimed at improving tax collection are made. _____________________________________________________________________ JEL Classification: H21, H29 Key Words: Tax elasticity, buoyancy, Ghana
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What Determines Saving in the Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS)
Adeolu O. Adewuyi (Ph.D), Abiodun S. Bankole (Ph.D) and Damilola F. Arawomo
This study investigates the determinants of gross domestic saving in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The methodology adopted involves the estimation of a saving function derived from standard life-cycle theory modified to cover the peculiar features of the West African economies. The saving model was estimated for aggregate ECOWAS using panel data covering 1980-2006. Both fixed and random effects models were estimated and the significance of individual and period effects was observed. Empirical analysis reveals mixed results. Among the major findings is that growth rate of gross domestic income has a positive but insignificant effect on the gross domestic saving in ECOWAS. However, the gross domestic income per capita has a significant negative impact on the gross domestic saving. The negative impact of gross domestic income per capita on savings may largely be due to dissaving or low level of income as a result of high level of poverty in most of the countries of ECOWAS. Result shows that saving deposit rate has a significant negative impact on the gross domestic saving, while the undesirable impact of the underdevelopment of the financial sector in West Africa was also noticed. The result also shows a significant negative impact of inflation, high budget deficit and terms of trade on gross domestic saving in ECOWAS. Thus, there is need to maintain price and macroeconomic stability to promote saving, investment and growth in West Africa. _____________________________________________________________________ JEL Classification: E20, E21 Keywords: Saving, Life-cycle theory, Panel data, ECOWAS
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(1989), The Effects of Interest Rates on Savings in Developing Countries. Working paper No. 56, IMF, Washington, D.C. Baltagi , B.H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, England. Bérubé, G & Côté, D (2000), Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate:Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada Bank of Canada Working Paper. No.3. Bloom D. E, Canning D, & Graham B.(2003), Longevity and Life-cycle Savings. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105(3), 319-338 Browning, M & T. F. Crossley (2001), The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving. The Institute for Fiscal Studies Wp01/15. May. Chete L N (1999), Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Savings in Nigeria. NISER Monograph Series No. 7 Collins, S. M (1991) Saving Behaviour in Ten Developing Countries, In B.Douglas Bernheim and J. B. Shoven, eds., National Saving and Economics Performance. Chicago: NBER. Pp.349-373. Culpeper, R. (2008), Enhancing Domestic Resource Mobilisation, G-24 Policy Brief No. 25, The North-South Institute, Ottawa. Deaton, A (1989), Saving in Developing Countries: Theory and Review Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Developing Economics. Pp.61-99. Dirschmid, W & E. Glatzer (2004), Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/04. Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). pp. 25-38. Edwards, S. (1996), Why are Latin America's Savings Rates So Low? An International Comparative Analysis, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 51, pp. 5-44. Elbadawi, I. A & Mwega, F. M (2000), Can Africa's Saving Collapse Be Reversed? The World Bank Economic Review. Vol. 14. N0.3 September. Pp.415-444 Fry M .J (1980), Saving, Investment, Growth and Cost of Financial Repression World Development. Vol. 8 No 1 p.p 317-27. 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(1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic growth, Journal of Economics, 70. Wansbeek, T.J. (2001), GMM Estimation in Panel Data Models with Measurement error. Journal of Econoimetrics; 104. Yamamoto S. (2004), Why Do Some Countries Save More Than Others. Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University. General Working Paper No. G -142
Patricia A. Adamu and Osi C. Itsede
Balance of Payments Adjustmet: the West African Monetary Zone Experience
This paper examines the monetary approach to the balance of payments for the WAMZ countries during the period 1975-2008. It examines whether excess money supply played a role as a disturbance using panel data estimation technique involving both the within-country and cross-country effects. The empirical results suggest that money played a significant role in determining the balance of payments, a result that validate the monetary approach to the balance of payment for the WAMZ countries. The strong negative relationship and link between domestic credit and net foreign asset is established. Interest rate and GDP growth were also found to have significant impact on the balance of payment in the WAMZ. The policy conclusion is that, the balance of payments disequilibrium can be corrected through appropriate financial programming, monetary targeting and the implementation of prudent fiscal policy _____________________________________________________________________ JEL Classification: C33; E51; F46 Key Words: Balance of Payment, Monetary approach, Panel estimation technique, WAMZ countries,
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